2025: A Year of Stability, Resilience, + Selective Growth (Year-End Wrap-Up)

This is your full year (January-December 2025) wrap-up. Lets make sense of what happened during the year and figure out where we are headed.

** Link to Market Metrics page at the bottom of this post. **

All data is for condos priced above $1M
(High-Rise, Mid-Rise + Lofts, no town homes are included)

If 2024 was a year defined by uncertainty, shifting conditions, and uneven momentum, 2025 offered something more meaningful, confirmation. Not confirmation of a breakout market, but confirmation that Atlanta’s $1M+ condo segment is deeper, more active, and more resilient than it appeared during the prior year.

At a surface level, the numbers are strong. Over 120 recorded sales, more than $225 million in total volume, and consistent activity across nearly every month of the year. But what stands out is not just the volume, it’s the structure behind it. This was not a market driven by a handful of trophy transactions. It was supported by a steady flow of deals across a wide range of price points above $1M, reinforcing that demand exists throughout the segment, not just at the very top.

At the same time, the data reveals a market that is far from uniform. The gap between the average and median sale price tells a clear story. Higher-end sales continue to pull averages upward, but the majority of transactions are occurring in a more defined middle range. The core of the market, where most deals are actually happening, sits closer to the $1.2M to $2.0M range, which remains the true center of activity and liquidity.

Price per square foot adds another layer. While average pricing remained strong, the spread between lower and higher price per square foot sales highlights a growing divide between product types. Newer construction, renovated units, and premium buildings consistently commanded stronger pricing, while older or less updated inventory required more competitive positioning to attract buyers. Not all luxury condos performed the same.

That divide becomes even more apparent when looking at days on market and cumulative days on market. Many properties ultimately sold, but often after adjustments, whether through pricing, repositioning, or extended exposure. Buyers did not disappear in 2025, they became more disciplined. They were willing to pay for quality, but only when the product justified it, and patient enough to wait when it didn’t.

This dynamic created what can best be described as a selective but functioning market. Inventory levels, at times, suggested oversupply, but not all inventory was truly competitive. A portion of listings remained on the market due to pricing gaps or product mismatch, inflating supply figures, while well-positioned properties continued to transact steadily. In practice, the pool of truly market-ready inventory was much tighter than the data alone would suggest.

By year-end, the market showed clear signs of improved alignment. Inventory declined, absorption increased, and closed sales picked up. While still technically a buyer’s market by traditional metrics, conditions moved closer to balance. Taken together, 2025 does not read as a year of extremes, but as a year where the market found its footing, shaped not by urgency or weakness, but by informed, deliberate decision-making on both sides of the transaction.

Breaking down the data:

For Sale/Sold/Pending

This chart displays the real estate activity for $1M+ condos from January to December 2025, breaking down the number of homes for sale, sold, and pended (under contract) each month.

Key Insights:

• For Sale: Inventory remained elevated throughout the year, ranging from 91 to 116 units, with the highest levels occurring in late spring and early summer. Inventory gradually declined toward year-end, reaching its lowest point in December.
• Sold: Sales activity was steady but modest, generally ranging from 6 to 10 units per month, with two notable exceptions, January (25 sales) and December (14 sales), both showing stronger closing activity.
• Pended: Pending activity fluctuated between 4 and 13 units, with no sustained trend, pointing to intermittent bursts of buyer engagement rather than consistent momentum.

Additional Highlights:

• Inventory built through the first half of the year, peaking at 116 units in May, reflecting supply outpacing immediate demand.
• Mid-year sales softened, with June recording just 6 closings, aligning with seasonal slowdowns and more cautious buyer behavior.
• September saw the highest pending activity at 13 units, signaling a short-term increase in engagement that did not immediately convert into closings.
• December stood out with 14 closed sales, even as pending activity dropped, suggesting a focus on completing existing deals rather than initiating new ones.

Overall Analysis:

The 2025 market was defined by elevated supply paired with steady, deliberate demand. While inventory often outpaced buyer activity, the market never stalled. Instead, it moved at a controlled pace, reinforcing the presence of an active but highly selective buyer pool.

 Month’s of Inventory Based on Closed Sales

This chart shows the “Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales” for $1M+ condos from January to December 2025, which indicates how long it would take to sell all available inventory at the current sales pace.

Key Insights:

• January to March: Inventory rose sharply from 3.9 to 13.1 months.
• April to June: Inventory remained elevated, peaking at 18.3 months in June.
• July to October: Conditions stabilized between 11 and 14 months.
• November to December: Inventory peaked again in November before dropping to 6.5 months in December.

Additional Highlights:

• June marked the highest level of oversupply during the year.
• Inventory remained above the typical buyer’s market threshold for most of the year.
• Despite high levels, inventory did not continue to climb indefinitely.
• December’s drop reflects improving alignment between supply and demand.

Overall Analysis: Although the market appeared oversupplied on paper, it continued to work through inventory steadily. By year-end, improving absorption helped bring the market closer to balance.

Average Days on Market

This chart displays the Average Days on Market for $1M+ condos from January to December 2025, showing how long properties took to sell during this period.

Key Insights:

• January to March: Stable pace, averaging mid-80 days.
• April to June: Market accelerated, with May dropping to 32 days before rising again.
• July to October: Days on market increased significantly, peaking at 179 days in October.
• November to December: Brief improvement followed by another increase to 125 days.

Additional Highlights:

• May represented the fastest-moving month of the year.
• A steady rise into October highlights a period of slower absorption.
• October’s spike likely reflects a smaller number of slower-moving listings.
• December’s increase suggests older inventory finally closing.

Overall Analysis: The variation in days on market highlights a pricing-sensitive environment. Well-positioned properties moved quickly, while others required time and adjustment. The market rewarded accuracy and realism.

Absorption Rate Based on Closed Sales

This chart displays the Absorption Rate Based on Closed Sales for $1M+ condos from January to December 2025, showing how much of the current active listings (as a percentage) are being absorbed (sold or pending) each month. Absorption Rate is presented as a percentage (%) of the current inventory.

Key Insights:

• January to March: Absorption dropped sharply from 25.5% to 7.6%.
• April to June: Continued decline, bottoming at 5.5% in June.
• July to October: Stabilized between 7% and 9%.
• November to December: Increased sharply to 15.4% in December.

Additional Highlights:

• January’s absorption rate was an outlier driven by strong early closings.
• Mid-year absorption remained low, reinforcing buyer leverage.
• Most of the year remained below 10%.
• December’s increase signals improved demand and closing activity.

Overall Analysis: Absorption remained steady but controlled throughout the year, reflecting a disciplined market. Buyers were active, but selective, leading to gradual, consistent absorption rather than rapid movement.

Where are we headed in 2026?

If 2024 raised questions about where the market was going, 2025 provided clearer signals, though not definitive answers. The data points to a market that is gradually moving toward better balance, even if it has not fully arrived there. Inventory levels, while elevated for much of the year, began to decline toward year-end. Absorption improved, and closing activity picked up, particularly in December. These are not dramatic shifts, but they are meaningful ones.

At the same time, the structure of the market suggests that this transition will remain uneven. Buyers are still operating from a position of strength, and that is unlikely to change quickly. Elevated inventory levels, combined with properties that carried over from earlier in the year, continue to create choice and leverage on the buy side.

What has changed is not the balance of power, but the level of engagement. Buyers are active. They are transacting. But they are doing so with discipline. That dynamic is likely to persist, particularly as the market continues to work through inventory that is not fully aligned with current expectations.

With The Dillon’s developer units sold out, the market is already beginning to shift into its next phase. New development is not disappearing, but it is evolving. Projects like Elyse Buckhead are stepping in to capture demand again, while the broader market sees renewed focus on resale inventory. This creates a more layered environment. Buyers now have a clearer choice between new construction and existing product, while sellers face a more competitive landscape that rewards pricing precision and strong positioning.

The path forward does not suggest a rapid shift toward a seller’s market, nor does it indicate a weakening one. Instead, it points toward a market that continues to normalize, where success is increasingly tied to product quality, pricing strategy, and alignment with buyer expectations.

If anything, 2025 reinforces a simple but important idea. This is no longer a market driven by timing alone. It is a market driven by execution. 

** These results do not include any inventory under contract or active which a developer has not listed in the MLS. Also, it does not include any town home units. **