High Inventory, Slow Sales Mark First Half Of 2024 ($1M+)

It’s already August, so we should look back at the first part of the year (January-June 2024) to take note of any trends happening.

** Link to Market Metrics page at the bottom of this post. **

All data is for condos priced above $1M
(High-Rise, Mid-Rise + Lofts, no town homes are included)

The condo market for $1M+ properties over the first half of 2024 has shown significant fluctuations, indicating a dynamic and potentially challenging environment for both buyers and sellers. The information does not take into account properties not listed in FMLS. So new construction condos like The Dillon Buckhead are enjoying gang-buster sales at a rapid pace. They don’t list all of their inventory in the MLS, so we can’t include that below. New construction is a completely different animal.

Across the six-month period, the number of condos available for sale ranged between 73 and 91, providing plenty of options for buyers. However, the number of condos actually sold each month was much lower, fluctuating between just 4 to 12 sales, highlighting a sluggish higher-end market. Pending sales (those under contract but not yet closed) remained relatively steady, between 5 and 12, suggesting that while some condos are finding buyers, the overall market movement is modest.

The “Months of Inventory” data, which reflects how long it would take to sell all the condos on the market at the current pace, also reveals a volatile market. In January, it would have taken about 11 months to clear the inventory, which dipped slightly in February to 9.1 months but then rose again to 11 months in March. April saw a quicker turnover with the inventory dropping to 6.7 months, but May experienced a significant slowdown with inventory spiking to 15.2 months. By June, this slightly improved to 13.7 months, but still indicated a slow sales pace. This trend suggests that while there are many condos available to choose from, the market is inconsistent, with periods where sales slow dramatically, saturating our inventory available.

The “Average Days on Market” for these condos further illustrates the market’s ups and downs. In January, condos were selling in about 66 days on average, increasing slightly to 74 days in February. March saw the slowest market, with condos taking an average of 96 days to sell. (March was where we had the condo insurance issue.) However, the market improved in April, with the average days on market dropping to 58 days, and May saw the quickest turnover with condos selling in just 37 days. Despite this brief surge, June marked a significant slowdown, with the average days on market jumping to 116 days, the highest in the six-month period.

Overall, the data points to a buyer’s market, where there is a high inventory of condos but relatively few sales, leading to longer times on the market. Buyers may find themselves in a strong position to negotiate, particularly as many properties remain available for extended periods. However, the market’s unpredictability also suggests that sellers who time their listings well, especially during periods of faster sales like in April and May, could still achieve favorable outcomes.

I say this all the time, price to sell. It sounds cliche, but it’s so true. Taking the time to properly price a property, along with stellar marketing and beautiful staging create the best possible conditions to sell a property. Overprice and you will most likely sit on the market.

For Sale/Sold/Pending

This chart below displays our condo market data over a series of 6-months, showing the number of homes that were for sale, sold, or pending (under contract) within each month.

• For Sale represents the total number of homes available for sale each month. The number fluctuates from 73 to 91 homes across the six-month’s shown.
• Sold indicates the number of homes sold each month. This number remains relatively low, ranging from 4 to 12 homes sold each month.
• Pending tracks the number of homes that went under contract (but not necessarily closed) each month. The trend is fairly stable, with the pending homes ranging from 5 to 12.

Overall, the chart suggests that while there are many homes for sale, the actual number of homes sold each month is much lower, indicating either a slow market or a buyer’s market where supply exceeds demand. The pending homes provide insight into future sales, which seem to be relatively consistent but still modest in comparison to the homes available.

So overall, get out there because there is plenty to choose from!

Month’s of Inventory

This chart shows the “Months of Inventory Based on Closed Sales” over a series of months, which indicates the supply of homes in relation to the current sales pace. It reflects how long it would take to sell all the homes currently on the market, assuming no new homes are listed.

Key observations:

• January- The inventory is at 11.1 months, meaning it would take about 11 months to sell the current homes on the market.
• February – The inventory slightly decreases to 9.1 months
• March – There is a slight rise back to 11 months
• April – The inventory drops to the lowest point in the chart at 6.7 months, indicating a quicker turnover or higher sales rate relative to the number of homes available.
• May – There is a significant increase to 15.2 months, suggesting a slower sales pace or an increase in inventory.
• June – The inventory decreases slightly to 13.7 months.

Overall, the trend fluctuates, with a notable dip in April, followed by a sharp increase in May. High months of inventory typically suggest a buyer’s market (more homes available than buyers), while lower numbers indicate a seller’s market (fewer homes available, higher demand). What’s clear is there are a lot of $1M+ condos on the market.

Average Days on Market

This chart shows the “Average Days on Market” for condos from January-June 2024, indicating how long, on average, condos are staying on the market before being sold.

• January – The average days on the market is 66 days
• February – This increases slightly to 74 days
• March – The average time on the market peaks at 96 days indicating a slower market during this month
• April – The average drops to 58 days showing an improvement in the market, with condos selling faster
• May – The market appears to be at its most active, with condos selling after an average of just 37 days on the market
• June – However, the market slows down significantly, with the average days on market surging to 116 days, the highest in the month shown.

Overall, the chart reveals a fluctuating market, with periods of both slow and fast sales. The significant increase in June suggests a cooling off in the market, possibly due to seasonal trends or a saturation of available inventory. The decrease in average days on market in April and May indicates a more favorable environment for sellers during those months, but the sharp rise in June suggests potential challenges ahead for sellers in this segment. Buyers may have more negotiating power as properties stay on the market longer.

For January-June, 2024 for condos priced above $1M listed in FMLS (First Multiple Listing Service):

• 94 Active Listings ranging from $1,050,000 up to $13,900,000
• 36 Pending Sales ranging from $1,000,000 up to $4,550,000
• 38 Sold properties ranging from $1,000,000 up to $3,900,000

** These results do not include any inventory under contract or active which a developer has not listed in the MLS. Also, it does not include any town home units. **